Chinese President Xi Jinping met with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen today in Paris for talks at the start of a five-day visit to Europe, Xi’s first in five years. Xi will also travel to Serbia and Hungary during the trip. (New York Times)
For Macron and von der Leyen, the talks today were an opportunity to press Xi on the two main issues driving tensions between the EU and China. First, there is Beijing’s support for Moscow amid the war in Ukraine, which Xi has not budged on more than two years into the conflict. Second, there are the worsening trade imbalances between China and the EU, the result of overcapacity in China, particularly in the electric vehicle and green technology industries.
Xi is unlikely to alter China’s position on either issue, however. Beijing has clearly concluded that the war in Ukraine is not an impediment to deepening its strategic partnership with Moscow. And as Mary Gallagher has written about in recent columns, China has both political and economic reasons to double down on export-driven growth.
Instead, Xi’s trip appears to be a campaign designed to sow divisions in Europe on two levels. His itinerary speaks to that, with Xi eschewing a visit to Brussels and instead starting in Paris. Macron is considered the Western leader most sympathetic to the multipolar global order that Beijing seeks as an alternative to U.S. hegemony. And in the past, Macron has advocated for Europe to take a more autonomous approach to China, rather than falling in line with Washington, which views Beijing primarily as a rival.
But Beijing’s actions have recently driven even Macron closer to the U.S. line on China. Just last week, Macron suggested Europe take a more realist approach to tackling trade imbalances with China. And his decision to “Europeanize” the French leg of Xi’s visit by inviting von der Leyen—already more aligned with Washington’s approach than Macron—to the talks today suggests that perceptions in Paris, Brussels and Washington may be converging more than Xi would like.
But if Beijing’s chances of driving a wedge between Brussels and Washington have receded in recent years, it hasn’t given up on sowing divisions within Europe, and the second and third legs of Xi’s trip may be where he finds more success on that score. Serbia is a candidate for EU membership, but it has long hedged on its EU aspirations by deepening its ties with Moscow and Beijing. Meanwhile, Hungary has long been the problem child of the EU, most recently by repeatedly delaying the delivery of aid to Ukraine. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban has also actively encouraged Chinese investment in the country and is considered the EU leader with the closest ties to Russia.
Still, tensions over trade imbalances and the war in Ukraine are likely to continue dominating EU-China relations going forward. With both issues at an impasse, Xi’s best chance at preventing a deeper split with the EU is likely not in smaller countries like Hungary, but in core EU countries like Germany, which still relies heavily on China for trade and appears unwilling to sacrifice that economic relationship.